Sophie Lavoie

PhD Student

Project description:

Determinants of predictability of vertebrate population time series

One of the main challenges in wildlife management and conservation is predicting the potential for animal populations and species to persist. The knowledge gained from monitoring population abundance makes possible, in some cases, to anticipate their expected trajectories during the coming century. However, the complexity of ecological systems, species’ intrinsic characteristics, unpredictable events and changing environmental conditions limit the predictive power of models. To date, the factors and disturbances influencing this predictability remain poorly understood. Consequently, the objective of my research project is to improve our understanding of the determinants of predictability and its sensitivity to environmental disturbances, which is essential to ensure the long-term persistence of animal populations under global change.